World heading for a temperature rise of 2.9 °C

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A new report from the UN Environment Program finds that the world is heading for a temperature rise that will far exceed the 1.5°C mark unless countries cut greenhouse gas emissions more than they promised in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Climate impacts are intensifying

2023 is also a year of extremes: there were record temperatures on a total of 86 days. September was the hottest month ever recorded - global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions broke all records. At the same time, the latest emissions gap report from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) concludes that the world is on track to achieve a temperature rise of 2.5 to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century, based on current commitments under the Paris Agreement. Increased climate protection measures are therefore urgently needed.

The Emissions Gap Report 2023 states that a global low-carbon transition is required to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions forecast for 2030. By 28% for a 2°C pathway and 42% for a 1.5°C pathway. It also examines the potential and risks of carbon dioxide removal methods, such as nature-based solutions and direct carbon capture and storage in the air.

Global inequality persists
Carbon emissions are as unequally distributed as global incomes. On average, a person emits 6.6 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita per year. A 2022 data set on inequality in carbon emissions shows that the 10% of the world's largest emitters are responsible for almost 50% of all emissions. The 50% with the lowest emissions only cause around 12% of total emissions.

Strengthening climate protection 

The ability to meet the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement depends on significantly stepping up climate action this decade to reduce the emissions gap. 

The report calls on all countries to accelerate the transition to low-carbon development across the economy. Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions must take more ambitious action and support developing countries in pursuing low-carbon development growth. The next decade will determine our future!

The report is the 14th in a series that brings together many of the world's leading climate scientists to examine future trends in greenhouse gas emissions and identify possible solutions to the challenge of global warming.

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Sources:

UN environment programmeFederal Agency for Civic Education

 

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